Posted by hanson807 on January 26, 2009
The federal government is just not going to admit any guilt in this current economic down turn. Instead, the want to nationalize banks. The troubles with our economy go back a long way. For Instance the Long Term Capital Management fund. As Roger Lowenstein points out, the crisis can’t be fixed. The houses are worth what they are worth and the banks owe what they owe.
A simple examination of the facts will show why this bailout and nationalization should not happen. Let’s say a bank has 20,000 bad loans that have gone into forclosure. The average house price was 200,000 dollars. That is 4 billion dollars in bad loans. Lets assume the issue is the bank actually borrowed the money because it didn’t have the money. Well the bank owes 4 billion but it has the houses. Problem is, the houses have dropped 20% in price. Now they owe 4 billion but only have 3.2 billion in assets. If the bank defaults then the lender of the 4 billion has 3.2 billion in houses and we have a bank that went out of business. Now the stupid part. The feds lend the bank 4 billion to pay back the loan. The bank decides to make minimum loan payments and sells the houses, mean while they loan out portions of the 4 billion to new home owners while making the minimum payments. So instead of an institution taking an 800 million dollar loss, we pony up 4 billion to make sure all those people get paid and give the culprit more of our cash to lend out or do as they wish. No where in there is the problem solved, everywhere in there is a chance the money will be used to save the culprit and make him rich and no where in there do we actually get paid back.
Now we get to nationalization. The government, who is not famous for running things well, takes over the bank. Lends itself the 4 billion. It also buys an interest and controls the lending institute that lent the 4 billion to the bad bank. It writes off the 4 billion to the lending institute, it keeps the billion it gives the bank, it sells the houses and keeps the profit and does what it wishes with the 4 billion. If I’m wrong, please tell me where we have a single rule that would stop this from happening. My expectation is that you will see the CEO’s of these government run banks, expemted from the government pay scale and you will see graft and corruption that would have made Al Capone blush.
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Posted by hanson807 on January 20, 2009
2008 was ranked as one of the top 10 hottest years on record. Unfortunately, the temperature data has slowly but steadily removed weather stations that didn’t agree with the preconcieved idea that it is getting warmer. The person who is in charge of this data is Jim Hansen. So what are the odds there is no professional malficiance? John Goetz has been keeping records of the temperatures around the world and the country and has found that the historical temperature data is being modified. This data falls under the department run by Jim Hansen. Jim Hansen has a reason to modify this data. He wants it to fit his idea of what should be happening. Even though it is ancedotal evidence, do you as the reader consider 2008 a warmer year than average? I sure didn’t. Of course, I can go to some fairly reliable sources like the weatherunderground and actually look at historical data. It doesn’t appear to be the warmest by a long stretch. The data is beginning to be questioned by people within the field.
I think it is time we really start questioning this government employee. Jim Hansen works for us, or at least he derives his pay from our tax money. These results and the trends in the loss of weather stations and changed data point to someone working diligantly to make the data fit a preconcieved idea. In other words, he is falsifying data and doing it on the public dole. He wants global warming because it fits his preconcieved ideas. Not only that, it makes him important and right. That puts him in a position to guide public policy. Is this what we want?
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Posted by hanson807 on January 18, 2009
Jim Hansen never fails to come up with a dire warning about global warming. Robin Mckie buys into the jibberish and actually adds this blatant lie “first warned Earth was in danger from climate change in 1988 and has been the victim of several unsuccessful attempts by the White House administration of George Bush to silence his views.” First of all he published a paper in Science, in 1981. In this paper, his sloppy science all but eliminated any other possible solutions to his preconcieved idea by ruling all things such as solar output are constent. Of course we know he is wrong. Also he attributes the increase in CO2 to emissions from fossil fuels and provides no way to prove this assertion. There are many other ways that CO2 can go up. Here is a simple one, the suns output increases, warms the oceans, CO2 is released into the atmosphere. His model and discriptions are done with a preconcieved outcome without even a discussion of other possible causes or any other possible conclusion that could be reached with the same data. Boom, he was on a mission. Secondly, he has given over 1400 interviews in which he expressed his view and actually critized the administration. How many employers would take that kind of crap and keep the guy on the pay role? Also, where was he handed his pink slip? Never happened. In other words, journalistic fraud. Mckie doesn’t even bother to do a basic google search to see if he was ever asked to leave or whether or not he gave over a thousand interviews and statements. Lazy or just politically motivated writing? You be the judge.
Lets start out by admitting that we don’t really know what the total contribution from man made sources is. Attempts are made to eliminate other sources but the reality is, the source and size of the source is unknown. Gas concentrations have been measured in ice and it should be interesting to note the range in the CO2 concentrations. It doesn’t imply an accuracy. On the contrary, it calls into question the validity of the data. Why not gas bubbles in Amber? Would that not be more representative? The ice core data can be interpeted many ways and it does show that periods prior to the automobile had high concentrations of CO2. Accordingly, temperature data that has been proven false and needs to be corrected is still in use. When questioned by climate scientist’s, people like Hansen and the IPCC say the data is wrong but accurate enough. Then we find out Hansen’s data was botched, but somehow we don’t question whether he did it on purpose to support his view, while he says that people that question global warming are backed by the oil companies or just not very bright.
So we have a guy who falsifies data and gives dire warnings based on his falsified data. Where is the media objectivity? Why would you waste space with this guys pronouncements when he has been shown to be wrong for 20 years now? Why is this guy still on the public payroll?
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Posted by hanson807 on January 13, 2009
This summer is going to be a shocker for resorts. A few things are going to make it rough. First its going to be a mild summer. I have this crazy idea that the sun might actually have a lot to do with the temperature of our planet. So being in a Maunder minimum currently, I’m going to predict a somewhat mild to cool summer. Gotta go with the Astrophysics on this one. This will make some of summer spots a little less attractive. So the resorts in the mountain areas will see smaller crowds.
The confidence in America by Americans is low. While it is low, people save and buy necessities. So the resorts are going to be hurting. In turn they will have to lay off thousands. Many resturants around the resort towns will close as well. So massive lay offs this summer for resorts. As far as the airlines go, they will be cutting flights and routes. Expect a lot of the smaller airports to really suffer. You will see the oil consumption drop considerably also. I suspect we will be exporting less gasoline as the economy in the countries that purchase it from us are hurting also. Companies who did well in oil futures are going to take a big hit. Morgan Stanley will take the double big hit of a sluggish oil market and investing heavily with China. The oil futures market that Morgan Stanley helped to create will also be the reason Morgan Stanley has to close its doors later this year.
I don’t see green energy advancing. It cost far to much to erect the wind mills and there just won’t be any money for it. Germany has long subsidized the building of the wind mills but with the economy tanking, it will have to reconsider. Currently the US budget for alternative fuels is just over 4 billion. In 2007 over 9 billion was invested in wind energy, but the investors are going to dry up. The Department of Energy would like 20% of our energy coming from wind power by 2035. They feel that will require up to 7000 new windmills a year. At 3.5 million per windmill, that’s close to 25 billion in investments.
Consumer electronics will be taking dive as well as the stores that sell them. Sony is posting a huge loss and is not expecting a turn around in 2009. Many other retailers are laying off workers and sales have slumped. So expect unemployment to exceed 9% by late summer.
I would expect home gardening sales to boom. I think more people will be growing a portion of their own food to cut costs. Currently and for the next few years people will be saving money and paying down their houses. It is a guarenteed gain on the return. They also will not be thinking about selling, the price of houses will continue to drop as the unemployment rises.
Watch for auto parts houses to boom as people repair their own cars. I expect to see kits to convert older cars to hybrids. Instead of buying a new hybrid for 30 thousand, they will be able to spend 2-4 thousand and make the old vehicle a hybrid. Also for those who supply parts and rebuilt motors etc, business will boom. Expect to see more mom and pop garages doing well. Not sure who will have the first hybrid conversion kit available, if I did I would buy their stock. Also look at small companies who do research in batteries as a good investment.
Well those are my predictions. Not good or bad, just what I see coming down the pike. The idea is not to fear what is coming but plot a course that will benefit you based on the realities of the economy.
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Posted by hanson807 on January 8, 2009
OPEC is figuring a few things out and they ain’t happy. They lowered production yet the price dropped. Some people think that the drop in oil price will mean that China will consume more. Problem is China has a major issue with its economy. They can only buy it if they have money. They only have money if people are buying their products. I am amazed yet again that the experts in economy have been wrong again. And then of course we have Russia. They are really growing. Unfortunately for them, the growth is exactly linked to the price of oil. They really don’t trade or produce anything but maybe weapons to sell to third world countries and the terrorists that kill our soldiers, but even that is getting hit by knock offs. Some geniuses say the Georgia invasion hurt them.
The down fall of the USA has been predicted, then the prediction revised and re-issued. C. Wright Mills wrote more than 4 decades ago that most other countries were out pacing our out dated capitist system. Morris Berman also has sage advice for America and how to become better than we are. What are we to do? How are we to survive with all these countries passing us? Maybe, just maybe, they aren’t going to pass us by. Maybe, because they have highly regulated finnancial markets they are going to end up far worse than us. Maybe, we should realize that all these supposedly smart people aren’t any brighter than we are. And in many cases, they are flat out wrong.
The fact is, whether they are Nobel winners like Stiglitz or just plain old economists from our universities and colleges, they can’t anticipate the future. This means they can look backwards and make up stupid reasons why something happened. Well how much intelligence does that take? If you could look ahead, if someone could predict the housing crisis, then that is the person we would listen too right?
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Posted by hanson807 on January 6, 2009
We have some news from Ford, Chrysler and Toyota. Hmm. American and Japanese auto makers can’t seem to sell cars. Oil prices are dropping like a rock. One has to wonder why China and India aren’t buying more oil. China according to some is set to surpass the US economy in 2035. Problem is, they rely on the US purchasing cheap products. Currently, our economic down turn has caused them some issues. The question is are we learning?
People have been predicting the down fall of the US since we began. In the 60’s the predicted America would lose to Russia. Lately, they have been predicting an end to American dominance and even our break up. The keep getting it wrong. But that doesn’t stop our politicians from seeing the wisdom in the ways of these scholars. They just take their cue from the Russian five year plan. Now, amazingly, our government has finally come to its senses and seen the wisdom of the four year plan. Of course he has made a few revisions and is now considering some tax cuts. So when it gets bad enough, it does appear that he may let you keep more of your money. He actually acknowledges that increasing taxes will hurt the economy and hurt jobs. The problem is, he doesn’t yet acknowledge that he can little if anything to help the economy. His one option is to attempt to get the government out of the way. But his supporters don’t get it. They think the government can spend us out of a recession. The problem with the great depression comparison is the war that followed did something for America. The war didn’t just get factories up and running and get people employed, it gave them confidence in their country. Currently, we lack that. The liberals have been talking down the economy since 2002.
In 2004 we had huge growth. But we had people to remind us it was still not good and we were in trouble. Bernadke even pointed out that the public preception about policies and the economy have a huge effect on the economy in 2004. He warned that if lost it would cost us. He discussed the rising cost of oil and what it would mean. The drum beat of dire economic indicators went on. No amount of good news could over come the bad reporting. The bad reports based on ancedotal evidence eventually convinced enough people the were doing bad that people lost confidence in our economy.
Do you question the idea that the confidence in our country is a serious issue? You should question anything anyone says, so lets take a look at history. A study by ABC in 2002. Also you will remember Jimmy Carter’s speech about confidence. Interesting that he saw that people had lost confidence in their government and we were doing poorly. Unfortunately, he got cause and effect backwards. It wasn’t that we were doing poorly and lost confidence in our government, we lost confidence in our government and that caused us to do poorly. What led to it?</p
Supposedly we got out of the depression because of WW II. Well we just finished a war in Vietnam, we should have been doing well. But unlike WW II, the Vietnam war created a deep divide in our country. Those for it and those against it. The press took sides against the war and continually reported atrocities that didn’t happened and always spoke of the enemy in glowing terms. The convinced those who were naive enough that we were the bad guy. People like Bill Ayers of the Weatherundergound commited terrorist acts against our country, we had the black panthers terrorizing people in the name of racial equality, we attempted to bring soldiers to trial every chance we got for imaginary war crimes. How can you have confidence in your country when you think its the bad guy.
Wow. Just like now. Black panthers intimidating people at polling stations. Millions of youths beleive we wrongly went into Iraq, the press sides with the terrorists against us and some of the politicians do as well. McDermott actually visisted Saddam just months before the war.
We have lost confidence in our government so consequently, we have no confidence in our financial system. They are linked, you can’t have one without the other. As they try and bail out the financial situation we see our hard earned money being handed out by the government with little or no discretion we can precieve. If something isn’t done to restore the faith in the government we aren’t going to recover soon. People who are wary of the government aren’t going to spend, they are going to save and be thrifty fearing the worst. The confidence that has to be restored will take a decade. We just spent eight years tearing it down. The liberals spent 8 years telling everyone that Bush was taking away their rights and started a war by lying to us. So what did they think? That half the people of the US who voted for Bush would appreciate that? Obama has his work cut out. But I predict that he will inherit the same kind of situation that Carter did and we will end up in the same place.
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