What The Summer Will Look Like
Posted by hanson807 on January 13, 2009
This summer is going to be a shocker for resorts. A few things are going to make it rough. First its going to be a mild summer. I have this crazy idea that the sun might actually have a lot to do with the temperature of our planet. So being in a Maunder minimum currently, I’m going to predict a somewhat mild to cool summer. Gotta go with the Astrophysics on this one. This will make some of summer spots a little less attractive. So the resorts in the mountain areas will see smaller crowds.
The confidence in America by Americans is low. While it is low, people save and buy necessities. So the resorts are going to be hurting. In turn they will have to lay off thousands. Many resturants around the resort towns will close as well. So massive lay offs this summer for resorts. As far as the airlines go, they will be cutting flights and routes. Expect a lot of the smaller airports to really suffer. You will see the oil consumption drop considerably also. I suspect we will be exporting less gasoline as the economy in the countries that purchase it from us are hurting also. Companies who did well in oil futures are going to take a big hit. Morgan Stanley will take the double big hit of a sluggish oil market and investing heavily with China. The oil futures market that Morgan Stanley helped to create will also be the reason Morgan Stanley has to close its doors later this year.
I don’t see green energy advancing. It cost far to much to erect the wind mills and there just won’t be any money for it. Germany has long subsidized the building of the wind mills but with the economy tanking, it will have to reconsider. Currently the US budget for alternative fuels is just over 4 billion. In 2007 over 9 billion was invested in wind energy, but the investors are going to dry up. The Department of Energy would like 20% of our energy coming from wind power by 2035. They feel that will require up to 7000 new windmills a year. At 3.5 million per windmill, that’s close to 25 billion in investments.
Consumer electronics will be taking dive as well as the stores that sell them. Sony is posting a huge loss and is not expecting a turn around in 2009. Many other retailers are laying off workers and sales have slumped. So expect unemployment to exceed 9% by late summer.
I would expect home gardening sales to boom. I think more people will be growing a portion of their own food to cut costs. Currently and for the next few years people will be saving money and paying down their houses. It is a guarenteed gain on the return. They also will not be thinking about selling, the price of houses will continue to drop as the unemployment rises.
Watch for auto parts houses to boom as people repair their own cars. I expect to see kits to convert older cars to hybrids. Instead of buying a new hybrid for 30 thousand, they will be able to spend 2-4 thousand and make the old vehicle a hybrid. Also for those who supply parts and rebuilt motors etc, business will boom. Expect to see more mom and pop garages doing well. Not sure who will have the first hybrid conversion kit available, if I did I would buy their stock. Also look at small companies who do research in batteries as a good investment.
Well those are my predictions. Not good or bad, just what I see coming down the pike. The idea is not to fear what is coming but plot a course that will benefit you based on the realities of the economy.