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Global Money? Who Would Back It?

Posted by hanson807 on April 7, 2009

Of course many here would say the Geithner would. He said he was open to the idea. So what? That isn’t what I mean. Who would back the currency? That is the little problem with a currency. It isn’t worth what you want it to be worth but what people believe it is worth. It’s value is determined by the perceived value of the people using the currency. Today, the dollar has a perceived worth because of the standing of our country. As the perception of us goes down so does the dollar. But who would lend the global money their reputation? Who would back its worth and what would that worth be? Secondly, once we agree to back the global currency we will be forced to back the IMF and the country of its choice to protect the value and backing of the currency. You ready for that?

It seems odd that a man who is supposed to be a master of monetary policy, Geithner(why would he be given that position if he wasn’t), is unable to understand why a global money would not work. There would be nothing to back this money. When you have a US dollar, the wealth of our country and the word of our people give that money its worth. We agree by our spending habits and our use of the dollar to its worth. If you bring a US dollar from over seas to here it has the same worth as one that has never left the country. This will not be true of a global dollar unless we back the global dollar with our economy. Only when people know who backs the dollar and what it is worth will they use that dollar. Maybe that is why around the world, the global money is the US dollar.

That being said, it begs the question: Why would Geithner and Obama want to destroy our credibility and make the US dollar worthless? Why would they even suggest for a second that we use anything other than a US dollar as the trade standard? What is their global view of the United States, that they would be willing to scrap our dollar for another? It shows disrespect for our country and its worth. It shows that they have no idea what our country is worth and that they have no idea how economies work. It shows they have no admiration and show no difference to America over any other country in the world. It shows the real agenda of the Obama administration is to tear down America and become subservient to other countries.


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The Real Robin Hood Story

Posted by hanson807 on March 5, 2009

is not about robbing the rich and giving to the poor. The real story involves taking from the sheriff who levied heavy taxes on the people to enrich himself. Today, people seem to be likening Obama to Robin Hood when he is really the Sheriff of the Potomac. He is opening up the tax gates for us serfs. What is he offering us?

Some say health care. He antes up over 640 billion for health care over 10 years. What would that buy? Let’s imagine we gave every man women and child a certain dollar amount every month for insurance. It would about 18 dollars a month for health care every month for 10 years. That is socialized medicine. Don’t make any mistakes though, you are going to be paying it. That money comes from your income taxes. Total spending for health care was 2.7 Billion. So he is offering a quarter of the entire amount spent to establish a bueracracy to watch the 2.7 billion a year. Why not just make all medical payments tax deductible?

It is odd that in the medical business, as is true with so many other businesses, that the cost of a particular surgery goes down over time. Let’s take the ACL in 1995 as compared to current average. The cost came down. According to the people who want socialized medicine, this can’t be true. Health care cost must be going up. But its relative. Before about 1990 the surgery was very rare and cost a ton but with the advances that were made became very common place. Feel free to pick out 50 drugs and trace the cost of all 50 for a 15 year period. They all go down. Again, it is contrary to the idea that health care costs are going up. Here is what is going up, you can have more things fixed and more drugs are available every day. How about prilosec? Do you know what the old fix was for chronic acid reflux? Surgery. So how much was saved going to the little purple pill? Was that figured in? Health care is just like a car. You bought one in 1980, it was slick. You bought one in 2008 and it costs more than the car you bought in 1980 and for what? Air bags, blue tooth, high mileage fuel efficient powerful, and a most new vehicles don’t need a tune up for over 100,000 miles. The difference in performance, handling and amenities is staggering. So you just can’t really compare them. My Grand father had a heart attack in 1945. His entire medical bill for three days in the hospital was about 300 to 500 dollars. So compared to today that is cheap. Of course all they did was make him comfortable until he died. So I am guessing if that is what you will accept if you get a heart attack today in a modern hospital, the bill will only be about 7500 dolloars for 3 days. Same care, essentially same cost when corrected for inflation. Its your choice.

Also, you might want to consider the French system. To be fair, the french government said it was a much lower number, 3000. The amount we lost on 9/11. Europe is said to have lost 52,000 to a heat wave. Of course it was a long time ago, it was 2003. Well at least they didn’t lose anyone in a hurricane. Wondering why I brought these up? That is government help. The same people who whinned about both of these things happening seem to think the way to help the medical system is to put people in charge who handle crisis like this. I guess they are used to mass casualties. Maybe its not a bad choice.

If they really wanted to help, the answer is easy. Allow full deduction on taxes of all medical expenses including the insurance payments. If they did that, more people would be covered and more people would see the doctors. Of course, maybe the real game is to gain control for the government of 12% to 20% of the economy.

Posted in Economic | 3 Comments »

A Billion Here, A Billion There

Posted by hanson807 on February 10, 2009

pretty soon it adds up to real money. Let’s just start by looking at the White House’s agenda for the economy off of the white houses webpage. Every single item listed under economy is government spending. Look at his health care. Not only is it spending on stupid stuff, he wants you to spend money on generic drugs and not reinvest in pharmacies in our country, and on pg 140 he proposes 1.5 trillion to the NIH for research. One has to ask, if research is important, why not buy drugs from the pharmacuetical companies instead of the generics? After all the generics are cheap because the pharmacuetical companies spent billions of dollars developing and testing the drugs, and the generics don’t have too. So they can ride on the backs of the big pharmacueticals, at least until they can’t afford to do research anymore. Then, we lose. We are going to cough out 550 million on page 128 for Indian health centers, that should stimulate the economy. On page 148 a new cabinet post is created “Office of the National Coordinator For Health” and we give 2 billion to start that office. Three billion will go to “Prevention and Wellness Fund”, thats on page 153. But hey, 335 million to prevent AIDS and other STD’s, that just smacks of economic stimulation.

Education gets a boost in Subtitle C – Education. The department of education will get 13 billion. Its right there on page 163. But on page 167, they toss in another 13.6 billion for special ed. Then on 169 they toss in another 15.6 billion for financial aid. 14 billion will come on page 171 for modernization and school repair, followed by 6 billion to more modernization. That is 7% for education. Of course if you go back to Title XIII State Fiscal Stabilization Plan, another 79.9 billion is to be controlled by the department of Education. That makes it 17%. And we know the Department of Education is good with money, they are so good, they don’t bother to keep books. And apparentlly, they don’t really have a standard for cutting checks to folks. Not sure where that fits into economic stimulus, but I don’t think it really matters to those who want to pass the bill. I guess on page 182 do they do make a point that if iron or steel is used it has to be made in the USA. Smoot-Haley, no lesson learned. Also on page 183 they want to make sure at least 25% is spent rehabing the school to green standards. Nice.

Okay, just a bit of Irony. On page 204, I can’t make up material this good, Social Security Administration Limitation on Administrative Expenses will get 900 million dollars. What is it going to be used for you ask, because maybe it sounds reasonable(okay, not really). Seriously, I didn’t make this up. $400,000,000 for the construction and associated costs to establish a new National Computer Center, which may include lease or purchase of real property: Provided, That the construction plan and site selection for such center shall be subject to review and approval by the Office of Management and Budget: Provided further, That the Committees on Appropriations of the House of Representatives and the Senate shall be notified 15 days in advance of the lease or purchase of such site: Provided further, That such center shall continue to be a government operated facility; and (2) $500,000,000 for processing disability and retirement workloads: Provided, That up to $40,000,000 may be used by the Commissioner of Social Security for health information technology research and activities to facilitate the adoption of electronic medical records in disability claims, including the transfer of funds to ‘‘Supplemental Security Income Program’’ to carry out activities under section 1110 of the Social Security Act. Honest to god, do they read this crap after they write it?

At least he didn’t take Stiglitz’s advice and did include tax cuts. Stiglitz is an unreptant socialist who believes it is the job of the government to control the common people. He even states it in his office when he talks about modifying behavior with handouts. Of course we will have real over sight. On page 16: SEC. 1222. COMPOSITION OF BOARD. (a) MEMBERSHIP.—The Board shall be composed of seven members as follows: (1) The Chief Performance Officer of the President, who shall chair the Board. (2) Six members designated by the President from the inspectors general and deputy secretaries of the Departments of Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Transportation, and other Federal departments and agencies to which funds are made available in this Act. (b) TERMS.—Each member of the Board shall serve for a term to be determined by the President. So an entire group of people to provide over sight, not one with business experience or even a business background, and mostly lacking any ethics or morals. Perfect.

The question is, will the 5 year plan work because we are the United States or will it fail as it did in the USSR, China and the rest of the countries it was tried in? I know, you could ask the question: Why do 5 year plans fail? but that would be so petty. Why not ask what would it take to make one work? You see if you ask why the 5 year plans fail, you end up with an answer that is just obvious. Government can’t buy a good economy. It would lead you to a universal truth about money, it comes from business and it is only printed by government. Government can print all the money it wants, but only business will give that money worth. Not one thing in this bill benefits business or the people of the United States. It is all about big government. If you think the government can run the economy and save you, you’ll love this bill. If you actually read history and understand that the government generally damages the economy, you are waiting to see just how much damage this bill will inflict.

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Anticipating Unemployment

Posted by hanson807 on February 3, 2009

My estimation of the coming summer appears to be rosey compared to what is actually happening currently. If you have been paying attention to the headlines, you will note that Liz Claiborne is cutting 725 jobs, Macy’s is cutting 7000 jobs, Boeing is cutting 10000 jobs, IBM is cutting 2800 jobs, Sprint is cutting 8000 jobs, Motorola is cutting 4000 jobs, AT&T, DuPont and Viacom announced 15,000 will be cut collectively, Kodak has announced 4500 cuts, AMD will cut 1100 jobs, Starbucks will layoff a 1000, Pfizer-Wyeth plan to cut 8000 jobs, New York state is planning to layoff 3100 state workers, UAL will cut 1000 salaried positions, Harley-Davidson is cutting 1100. Others can be added but this is a list of about 60,000 jobs that are going to get cut.

Along with those cuts you should anticipate other companies and small shops to begin to close. These were their customers and they are about to be unemployed. Small craft and mom and pop stores will be closing later this summer as well. Most of the big retail stores will be cutting their inventories and over seas orders will be dropping significantly. With these drops you will see plants being shuttered. The closing of plants and reduced orders will require less resources, so you will see mining and processing plants reduce output and some cases close all together. This will drop the consumption of oil and we should see a down turn in oil use so the $40 a barrel price is going to be here for a while. Not sure I would say it is going to drop, but I wouldn’t be surprised by a $30 a barrel price by mid July.

New developing energy markets are going to be hit hard. The wind farms we have will continue to run of course, but new ones will be put on hold or canceled. The tax credits associated with these projects are going to lose value and make the project unprofitable.

Unfortunately, research and development will also decline as companies try and increase the bottom line. This is exactly backwards of what I think they should do. I beleive if they increased R&D, because the cash is going away anyway, they may be able to develop a way out of this mess. You will see more people returning to college and university. My guess is you will see more people going into science fields and health care and less in business and education. The way out is through technology and new markets.

The stimulus package we should be seeing should be an increase in R&D, a new space mission and goal of making a huge moon base. The budget should cut all road and highway maintenance. The social security and medicare program benefits have never been tied to the market, the socialists believe this is the way to go. However, the amount of money that they get is tied to employment. As unemployment climbs if we don’t cut all social programs across the board we are going to just get hammered. It will increase the length of time it takes to recover.

State employees and other government employees had better start to understand where the money is coming from. The 60,000 job cuts I mentioned early pay their salary and they are gone, so they will be taking a pay cut or a job cut. I realize they won’t like it, but I’m sure the 60,000 thousand who lost their jobs didn’t like it either.

California is in serious trouble. I don’t think they understand just how bad off California is. California is going to go bankrupt this year.

Posted in Economic | 2 Comments »

The Finishing Blow, Nationalize Banks

Posted by hanson807 on January 26, 2009

The federal government is just not going to admit any guilt in this current economic down turn. Instead, the want to nationalize banks. The troubles with our economy go back a long way. For Instance the Long Term Capital Management fund. As Roger Lowenstein points out, the crisis can’t be fixed. The houses are worth what they are worth and the banks owe what they owe.

A simple examination of the facts will show why this bailout and nationalization should not happen. Let’s say a bank has 20,000 bad loans that have gone into forclosure. The average house price was 200,000 dollars. That is 4 billion dollars in bad loans. Lets assume the issue is the bank actually borrowed the money because it didn’t have the money. Well the bank owes 4 billion but it has the houses. Problem is, the houses have dropped 20% in price. Now they owe 4 billion but only have 3.2 billion in assets. If the bank defaults then the lender of the 4 billion has 3.2 billion in houses and we have a bank that went out of business. Now the stupid part. The feds lend the bank 4 billion to pay back the loan. The bank decides to make minimum loan payments and sells the houses, mean while they loan out portions of the 4 billion to new home owners while making the minimum payments. So instead of an institution taking an 800 million dollar loss, we pony up 4 billion to make sure all those people get paid and give the culprit more of our cash to lend out or do as they wish. No where in there is the problem solved, everywhere in there is a chance the money will be used to save the culprit and make him rich and no where in there do we actually get paid back.

Now we get to nationalization. The government, who is not famous for running things well, takes over the bank. Lends itself the 4 billion. It also buys an interest and controls the lending institute that lent the 4 billion to the bad bank. It writes off the 4 billion to the lending institute, it keeps the billion it gives the bank, it sells the houses and keeps the profit and does what it wishes with the 4 billion. If I’m wrong, please tell me where we have a single rule that would stop this from happening. My expectation is that you will see the CEO’s of these government run banks, expemted from the government pay scale and you will see graft and corruption that would have made Al Capone blush.

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Top Ten Warmest Years or Hoax?

Posted by hanson807 on January 20, 2009

2008 was ranked as one of the top 10 hottest years on record. Unfortunately, the temperature data has slowly but steadily removed weather stations that didn’t agree with the preconcieved idea that it is getting warmer. The person who is in charge of this data is Jim Hansen. So what are the odds there is no professional malficiance? John Goetz has been keeping records of the temperatures around the world and the country and has found that the historical temperature data is being modified. This data falls under the department run by Jim Hansen. Jim Hansen has a reason to modify this data. He wants it to fit his idea of what should be happening. Even though it is ancedotal evidence, do you as the reader consider 2008 a warmer year than average? I sure didn’t. Of course, I can go to some fairly reliable sources like the weatherunderground and actually look at historical data. It doesn’t appear to be the warmest by a long stretch. The data is beginning to be questioned by people within the field.

I think it is time we really start questioning this government employee. Jim Hansen works for us, or at least he derives his pay from our tax money. These results and the trends in the loss of weather stations and changed data point to someone working diligantly to make the data fit a preconcieved idea. In other words, he is falsifying data and doing it on the public dole. He wants global warming because it fits his preconcieved ideas. Not only that, it makes him important and right. That puts him in a position to guide public policy. Is this what we want?

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Again Dire Warnings About Global Warming

Posted by hanson807 on January 18, 2009

Jim Hansen never fails to come up with a dire warning about global warming. Robin Mckie buys into the jibberish and actually adds this blatant lie “first warned Earth was in danger from climate change in 1988 and has been the victim of several unsuccessful attempts by the White House administration of George Bush to silence his views.” First of all he published a paper in Science, in 1981. In this paper, his sloppy science all but eliminated any other possible solutions to his preconcieved idea by ruling all things such as solar output are constent. Of course we know he is wrong. Also he attributes the increase in CO2 to emissions from fossil fuels and provides no way to prove this assertion. There are many other ways that CO2 can go up. Here is a simple one, the suns output increases, warms the oceans, CO2 is released into the atmosphere. His model and discriptions are done with a preconcieved outcome without even a discussion of other possible causes or any other possible conclusion that could be reached with the same data. Boom, he was on a mission. Secondly, he has given over 1400 interviews in which he expressed his view and actually critized the administration. How many employers would take that kind of crap and keep the guy on the pay role? Also, where was he handed his pink slip? Never happened. In other words, journalistic fraud. Mckie doesn’t even bother to do a basic google search to see if he was ever asked to leave or whether or not he gave over a thousand interviews and statements. Lazy or just politically motivated writing? You be the judge.

Lets start out by admitting that we don’t really know what the total contribution from man made sources is. Attempts are made to eliminate other sources but the reality is, the source and size of the source is unknown. Gas concentrations have been measured in ice and it should be interesting to note the range in the CO2 concentrations. It doesn’t imply an accuracy. On the contrary, it calls into question the validity of the data. Why not gas bubbles in Amber? Would that not be more representative? The ice core data can be interpeted many ways and it does show that periods prior to the automobile had high concentrations of CO2. Accordingly, temperature data that has been proven false and needs to be corrected is still in use. When questioned by climate scientist’s, people like Hansen and the IPCC say the data is wrong but accurate enough. Then we find out Hansen’s data was botched, but somehow we don’t question whether he did it on purpose to support his view, while he says that people that question global warming are backed by the oil companies or just not very bright.

So we have a guy who falsifies data and gives dire warnings based on his falsified data. Where is the media objectivity? Why would you waste space with this guys pronouncements when he has been shown to be wrong for 20 years now? Why is this guy still on the public payroll?

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What The Summer Will Look Like

Posted by hanson807 on January 13, 2009

This summer is going to be a shocker for resorts. A few things are going to make it rough. First its going to be a mild summer. I have this crazy idea that the sun might actually have a lot to do with the temperature of our planet. So being in a Maunder minimum currently, I’m going to predict a somewhat mild to cool summer. Gotta go with the Astrophysics on this one. This will make some of summer spots a little less attractive. So the resorts in the mountain areas will see smaller crowds.

The confidence in America by Americans is low. While it is low, people save and buy necessities. So the resorts are going to be hurting. In turn they will have to lay off thousands. Many resturants around the resort towns will close as well. So massive lay offs this summer for resorts. As far as the airlines go, they will be cutting flights and routes. Expect a lot of the smaller airports to really suffer. You will see the oil consumption drop considerably also. I suspect we will be exporting less gasoline as the economy in the countries that purchase it from us are hurting also. Companies who did well in oil futures are going to take a big hit. Morgan Stanley will take the double big hit of a sluggish oil market and investing heavily with China. The oil futures market that Morgan Stanley helped to create will also be the reason Morgan Stanley has to close its doors later this year.

I don’t see green energy advancing. It cost far to much to erect the wind mills and there just won’t be any money for it. Germany has long subsidized the building of the wind mills but with the economy tanking, it will have to reconsider. Currently the US budget for alternative fuels is just over 4 billion. In 2007 over 9 billion was invested in wind energy, but the investors are going to dry up. The Department of Energy would like 20% of our energy coming from wind power by 2035. They feel that will require up to 7000 new windmills a year. At 3.5 million per windmill, that’s close to 25 billion in investments.

Consumer electronics will be taking dive as well as the stores that sell them. Sony is posting a huge loss and is not expecting a turn around in 2009. Many other retailers are laying off workers and sales have slumped. So expect unemployment to exceed 9% by late summer.

I would expect home gardening sales to boom. I think more people will be growing a portion of their own food to cut costs. Currently and for the next few years people will be saving money and paying down their houses. It is a guarenteed gain on the return. They also will not be thinking about selling, the price of houses will continue to drop as the unemployment rises.

Watch for auto parts houses to boom as people repair their own cars. I expect to see kits to convert older cars to hybrids. Instead of buying a new hybrid for 30 thousand, they will be able to spend 2-4 thousand and make the old vehicle a hybrid. Also for those who supply parts and rebuilt motors etc, business will boom. Expect to see more mom and pop garages doing well. Not sure who will have the first hybrid conversion kit available, if I did I would buy their stock. Also look at small companies who do research in batteries as a good investment.

Well those are my predictions. Not good or bad, just what I see coming down the pike. The idea is not to fear what is coming but plot a course that will benefit you based on the realities of the economy.

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Another Driver in the wrong Seat

Posted by hanson807 on January 8, 2009

OPEC is figuring a few things out and they ain’t happy. They lowered production yet the price dropped. Some people think that the drop in oil price will mean that China will consume more. Problem is China has a major issue with its economy. They can only buy it if they have money. They only have money if people are buying their products. I am amazed yet again that the experts in economy have been wrong again. And then of course we have Russia. They are really growing. Unfortunately for them, the growth is exactly linked to the price of oil. They really don’t trade or produce anything but maybe weapons to sell to third world countries and the terrorists that kill our soldiers, but even that is getting hit by knock offs. Some geniuses say the Georgia invasion hurt them.

The down fall of the USA has been predicted, then the prediction revised and re-issued. C. Wright Mills wrote more than 4 decades ago that most other countries were out pacing our out dated capitist system. Morris Berman also has sage advice for America and how to become better than we are. What are we to do? How are we to survive with all these countries passing us? Maybe, just maybe, they aren’t going to pass us by. Maybe, because they have highly regulated finnancial markets they are going to end up far worse than us. Maybe, we should realize that all these supposedly smart people aren’t any brighter than we are. And in many cases, they are flat out wrong.

The fact is, whether they are Nobel winners like Stiglitz or just plain old economists from our universities and colleges, they can’t anticipate the future. This means they can look backwards and make up stupid reasons why something happened. Well how much intelligence does that take? If you could look ahead, if someone could predict the housing crisis, then that is the person we would listen too right?

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For A Few Dollars More

Posted by hanson807 on January 6, 2009

We have some news from Ford, Chrysler and Toyota. Hmm. American and Japanese auto makers can’t seem to sell cars. Oil prices are dropping like a rock. One has to wonder why China and India aren’t buying more oil. China according to some is set to surpass the US economy in 2035. Problem is, they rely on the US purchasing cheap products. Currently, our economic down turn has caused them some issues. The question is are we learning?

People have been predicting the down fall of the US since we began. In the 60’s the predicted America would lose to Russia. Lately, they have been predicting an end to American dominance and even our break up. The keep getting it wrong. But that doesn’t stop our politicians from seeing the wisdom in the ways of these scholars. They just take their cue from the Russian five year plan. Now, amazingly, our government has finally come to its senses and seen the wisdom of the four year plan. Of course he has made a few revisions and is now considering some tax cuts. So when it gets bad enough, it does appear that he may let you keep more of your money. He actually acknowledges that increasing taxes will hurt the economy and hurt jobs. The problem is, he doesn’t yet acknowledge that he can little if anything to help the economy. His one option is to attempt to get the government out of the way. But his supporters don’t get it. They think the government can spend us out of a recession. The problem with the great depression comparison is the war that followed did something for America. The war didn’t just get factories up and running and get people employed, it gave them confidence in their country. Currently, we lack that. The liberals have been talking down the economy since 2002.

In 2004 we had huge growth. But we had people to remind us it was still not good and we were in trouble. Bernadke even pointed out that the public preception about policies and the economy have a huge effect on the economy in 2004. He warned that if lost it would cost us. He discussed the rising cost of oil and what it would mean. The drum beat of dire economic indicators went on. No amount of good news could over come the bad reporting. The bad reports based on ancedotal evidence eventually convinced enough people the were doing bad that people lost confidence in our economy.

Do you question the idea that the confidence in our country is a serious issue? You should question anything anyone says, so lets take a look at history. A study by ABC in 2002. Also you will remember Jimmy Carter’s speech about confidence. Interesting that he saw that people had lost confidence in their government and we were doing poorly. Unfortunately, he got cause and effect backwards. It wasn’t that we were doing poorly and lost confidence in our government, we lost confidence in our government and that caused us to do poorly. What led to it?</p

Supposedly we got out of the depression because of WW II. Well we just finished a war in Vietnam, we should have been doing well. But unlike WW II, the Vietnam war created a deep divide in our country. Those for it and those against it. The press took sides against the war and continually reported atrocities that didn’t happened and always spoke of the enemy in glowing terms. The convinced those who were naive enough that we were the bad guy. People like Bill Ayers of the Weatherundergound commited terrorist acts against our country, we had the black panthers terrorizing people in the name of racial equality, we attempted to bring soldiers to trial every chance we got for imaginary war crimes. How can you have confidence in your country when you think its the bad guy.

Wow. Just like now. Black panthers intimidating people at polling stations. Millions of youths beleive we wrongly went into Iraq, the press sides with the terrorists against us and some of the politicians do as well. McDermott actually visisted Saddam just months before the war.

We have lost confidence in our government so consequently, we have no confidence in our financial system. They are linked, you can’t have one without the other. As they try and bail out the financial situation we see our hard earned money being handed out by the government with little or no discretion we can precieve. If something isn’t done to restore the faith in the government we aren’t going to recover soon. People who are wary of the government aren’t going to spend, they are going to save and be thrifty fearing the worst. The confidence that has to be restored will take a decade. We just spent eight years tearing it down. The liberals spent 8 years telling everyone that Bush was taking away their rights and started a war by lying to us. So what did they think? That half the people of the US who voted for Bush would appreciate that? Obama has his work cut out. But I predict that he will inherit the same kind of situation that Carter did and we will end up in the same place.

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